Why one should not trust crash prophets
Decades ago, André Kostolany knew that there are people who want to make a lucrative business with the stock market. "There are extremely many people who just want to panic on the stock market," said the stockbroker, who was committed to seeing the stock as a long-term investment. "The panic is an extremely lucrative business." After the stock prices fell in the past week, of course, have again reported the so-called crash prophets who have made comparisons again with the stock market crash in 2008.
Whether low interest rate policy, Trump or Brexit - one always finds a reason for a speedy crash
Although the last few years have been quite positive, the crash prophets have never been quite calm. Because again and again referred to the low interest rate policy of the central banks, which could sometimes provide for a hyperinflation; Bubbles that would emerge on the financial markets could soon burst and lead to chaos. The very long economic upswing in the USA is also a reason why experts who are warning of a recession keep responding. Also, the Brexit and the election of Trump to the 45th President should cause serious turbulence - Nil.
Of course there are dangers
Of course there are risks for the financial markets and the economy and of course it is extremely important that you remain objective and also objectively analyzed. Just a few days ago, the International Monetary Fund issued a warning that there are dangers that exist, above all, because of the high level of private and public debt; At the same time, however, the International Monetary Fund also assumes that the global economy will continue to boom in the future.
Corrections and crises are part of everyday business
On the one hand it is about dramatizing risks, on the other hand it is about creating fear - in both cases, however, one pursues only one goal: to make a profit. For example, Daniel W. Drezner, a US political scientist, clearly showed in his book, published in 2017, how to use fear: "Scare people to death, then you come to the office as a customer," it says Motto. "There are certain aberrations that are always used as an indication of decline. Unfortunately, however, the positive developments or the differentiated overall picture are ignored, "says Karl-Heinz Thielmann, Managing Director of Investing Reserach AG. "Crises and corrections are parts of the stock market that investors who have a long-term investment horizon do not need to worry about."
Between "crash" and "chance"
There are also seemingly a few crash prophets who themselves do not quite believe in their predictions. Thus, one's own forecasts are already overshadowed when the wind has turned on the stock exchange. Thus, on October 11, the Handelsblatt wrote that the "global stock market crash was only the first harbinger of a major crash" and the "stock market crash now announces a difficult time". Even from a "poisonous cocktail", the "investors served", was read. A few days later, after the turbulence was over, there was a new article in the "Handelsblatt". So it was to be read that the "DAX values were not so favorable for years - a right chance for investors". Thus the "Handelsblatt" had to cancel the prophesied crash - once again.