Multi-Asset Global 5 - Current market commentary by alpha beta asset management (30.04.2018)
After a weak first quarter on the stock markets, April saw a general recovery in the main stock indices. The main reasons for this were decreasing tensions over US-China trade differences, signs of stabilization in purchasing managers' indices, and solid corporate earnings in the US and Europe. In addition, a stronger US dollar meant that export demand outside the US was more in demand. It was therefore not surprising that the European STOXX 600 Index, the DAX and the Japanese Nikkei were able to achieve particularly strong growth of + 4.6%, + 4.3% and + 4.7% compared to the US S & P 500. The latter only gained 0.4%.
One of the biggest monthly winners was the Greek Athex Index in our portfolio, up 10%, which is likely to have benefited from the resurgent debate over debt relief between Greece and its creditors. The relative weakness of US equities, on the other hand, was due to the aforementioned dollar movement, the weak performance of the technology sector, and not least the debate over the potential impact of a 10-year Treasury yield of more than 3%.
This rose in the month of April from 2.74% to 2.95% and in the meantime even exceeded 3%. In Europe, this trend was significantly weaker, with yields on German and Portuguese government bonds with a residual maturity of 10 years rising by 0.06% to 0.56% and 1.66%, respectively. By contrast, yields on Italian government bonds of this maturity segment remained unchanged. The corporate bond segment made a positive contribution to performance, with high yield bonds in particular rising. These increased by an average of 0.6% in Europe and the USA. Overall, Multi-Asset Global 5 generated a gain of 0.50% and is now 0.49% - after costs - above its value at the beginning of the year.
For the coming weeks and months, we expect a challenging equity environment due to rising central bank interest rates in the US, uncertainty over inflation expectations and trade uncertainty. This was pushed into the background due to surprisingly positive quarterly figures and stabilizing purchasing managers' indices in April. Nevertheless, we believe that a lack of new momentum in the stock market could lead to selling pressure in the medium term. On the other hand, a positive influence on European equities should continue to be due to the valuation of the US dollar, the positive trend of which we believe will continue. For the time being, the focus in multi-asset global 5 remains on risk management.
The current factsheets of the institutional and private share class as of April 30, 2018 can be found at:
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