Multi-Asset Global 5 - Fund reporting and current market commentary by alpha beta asset management (31.10.2018)
October 2018 was the weakest month for stock markets since the beginning of 2016. Global stock prices came under strong pressure and fell in step. Contrary to the previous months of this year, the US leading index S & P 500 was also one of the big losers this time, falling 5.5% m / m. Particularly striking was the weakness of the major American technology stocks such as Amazon, Google or Apple, which considered as a basket even losses of about 7.2% had to cope.
The Nasdaq technology index even lost 9.2%, but, in contrast to the German leading index DAX, is still above its start value at the beginning of the year on an annualized basis. The DAX and the STOXX 600 Europe lost 6.5% and 5.5% respectively in October and are down 10.8% and 3.5% respectively since the beginning of the year on a total return basis. The triggers for the negative share month of October are manifold and, in our view, mainly explained by the generally pessimistic sentiment on the capital markets, also due to numerous political risk factors, in combination with the shortfall of technical price brands. On the bond side, the market situation was more relaxed, although government bonds were only partially successful as diversifying investments in the portfolio due to the low interest rate environment. The yield on German government bonds with a remaining term of 10 years fell moderately from approx. 0.47% to approx. 0.39%. Yields of higher-risk government bonds from Portugal or Italy with the same maturity remained unchanged or even rose by about 0.25%, as in the case of Italy.
Corporate bonds also had higher risk premiums, which prevented a successful month in October: investment-grade corporate bonds lost only marginally on a total-return basis, while corporate bonds in the high-yield segment made losses of about $ 5 billion on a broad basis. 1.5%. Overall, Multi-Asset Global 5 lost 1.36% in October in this challenging market environment. For the coming weeks, we continue to hold the scenario of a major market crash for a conceivable, but unlikely scenario.
Although the midterm reflections in the US are the focus, their outcome and the consequences for the capital markets are highly uncertain. We also regard the fear of higher inflation in the USA as not entirely unfounded, but again the risk in connection with the currently very good economic data must be considered. Regardless of macroeconomic and political news, our focus remains on risk management. The nervousness of investors regarding a sudden risk scenario has even increased compared to the previous month.
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